What Is a Futures Bet?
A futures bet is a wager on an outcome that will be decided in the future — typically weeks or months from now. The most common futures markets include:
- Championship winner: Which team will win the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, etc.
• Conference/division winners: Which team wins the AFC, NFC, Eastern Conference, etc.
• Individual awards: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year
• Season win totals: Over/under on how many games a team will win during the regular season
Futures are available year-round. You can bet on next year's Super Bowl winner the day after this year's game ends.
How Futures Odds Work
Futures odds look like standard American odds but tend to have larger numbers because the probability of any single team winning a championship is low.
Example: NBA Championship Futures
• Celtics +350
• Thunder +500
• Nuggets +800
• Rockets +2500
A $100 bet on the Celtics at +350 returns $450 total ($350 profit) if they win the title. A $100 bet on the Rockets at +2500 returns $2,600 total.
Odds change constantly based on team performance, injuries, and betting volume. Getting in early on a team before they surge can lock in much better odds.
The Hold on Futures Markets
Futures markets have a much higher house edge ("hold") than single-game bets. If you add up the implied probabilities of all teams in a championship futures market, the total often exceeds 140-160% — meaning the book is building in a 40-60% margin.
This is because futures tie up your money for months with no guarantee of a return. The higher hold compensates the sportsbook for this risk. Understanding this helps you be selective about which futures bets offer genuine value.
Futures Betting Strategies
1. Bet early for better odds. The best futures value is found before the season starts or early in the season before a team's improvement is widely recognized.
2. Hedge when appropriate. If your +2500 futures bet looks like it might hit, you can bet against your team in later rounds to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.
3. Shop across books aggressively. Futures odds vary dramatically between sportsbooks — more than any other market. A team might be +600 at one book and +800 at another.
4. Focus on win totals. Season win total over/unders often have the lowest hold of any futures market and offer the most analytical edge for sharp bettors.